Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Here's a prediction: the Supreme Court strikes down the individual mandate AND doesn't toss out the entire law.

All four liberal Justices will vote both for the mandate and for allowing the law to stand. A number of conservative Justices will vote to toss the entire thing.

As is usually the case, it will come down to Kennedy. While he might not like the vitriol directed his way if he was the deciding vote to toss Obamacare in full, he might very well like the idea of tossing out the most problematic part of the law, the individual mandate, yet voting with the liberals to allow the rest of the law to stand.

This way, he avoids getting tagged as the Justice who killed Obamacare... and at the same time reclaiming a bit of his reputation with conservatives for killing the individual mandate.