Wednesday, February 01, 2012

I know why Republicans are getting excited over a poll showing Obama with approval ratings of under 50% in a bunch of battleground states... and I think they're making a mistake in doing so.

You have to factor in the number of unhappy Democrats. Whatever their reasons for not being happy with Obama, they're going to vote for him in November. So to the extent that Obama is underwater in a particular state because of unhappy Democrats, he's not really in trouble.

The key metric is how so-called independents and moderates view Obama. These are the voters whose votes will determine the winner in November. The more unhappy they are with Obama, the greater the chance a GOP nominee has of winning their votes.