Monday, October 25, 2010

According to Michael Barone (and a number of others), "... in wave-election years, the wave party usually wins half or a little more of the seats it targets, while the losing party usually wins only about one-tenth of its target seats"

While true, it is also no help for those trying to guess how the election is going to turn out.

One doesn't know in advance if an election is a 'wave election'.

An election is a 'wave election' only if the results turn out that way, with the GOP capturing tons of Democratic-held seats.

If, on the other hand, the Democrats don't do so badly, then the GOP doesn't do so good... and by definition, this isn't a wave election.