Tuesday, September 21, 2010

I think I'm the first* to raise the question: what is the 'October surprise' the Democrats and their media allies have stored for next month?

Given the stakes - continued control of Congress for the Democrats -v- the GOP taking over one or both houses of Congress and, with it, gaining the ability to stop Obama's agenda in its tracks - if there is anything, anything, anything that the Democrats have, I would expect to see it rolled out in the next handful of weeks.

Capturing Bin Laden? Remember how in the months leading up to the elections in 2004, 2006 and 2008, a number of Democrats claimed the CIA had captured Bin Laden and was waiting to announce his capture to when it would do Bush the most good? It would be a nice twist if that were to happen this year.

A horrible act of terrorism that served to rally the country the country around the Commander in Chief and, by extension, members of his political party? I remember during the Bush years, there was no shortage of wags claiming that Bush was secretly hoping for such an attack in hopes that it would boost his flagging popularity.

Reports of favorable economic activity? Perhaps a jobs that showed a substantial increase in hiring? Or a huge drop in the number of layoffs? Or maybe a big jump in business and consumer confidence? Given how completely Obama has politicized the federal bureaucracy, it shouldn't be too much trouble to rustle up some positive reports over the next couple of weeks. And if those reports were later revised downwards, well, that would be after the election, right?

Something that showed Obama was 'right' to bail out Wall Street and the automakers? Perhaps a General Motors IPO that brought in so many billions of dollars as to result in taxpayers actually making a profit on our 'investment'? Or Citigroup and AIG paying back all of the billions they were loaned... with interest? What better way for Obama to demonstrate that voters should stick with him and his team than to come up with some concrete proof that his way works?

Of course, the October surprise doesn't have to be something that reflects positively on Obama and the Democrats, their interests could be served just as well with reports of something really negative involving one or more of the GOP challengers. Again, think back to the Bush years: CBS's pushing forged documents in 2004 to malign Bush, reports of improper behavior on the part of GOP congressmen in 2006 and 2008.

Prediction: As much as the Democrats would like to trash their opponents, they're losing on so many fronts right now that they couldn't hope to come up with enough mud to dirty enough of the GOP challengers who are now running ahead in the polls.

And while it would sure be nice to capture Bin Laden (better yet to kill him), right now people are more worried about the economy than they are worried about Bin Laden, so I'm going with something on the economic front.

As it would take real money (more than even George Soros has) to pull off an AIG payback or a GM IPO, I'm going with something on the economic report front.... sometime between now and the end of October something is going to come out of some government office (or perhaps a sympathetic private outfit) that claims that the future is looking a lot rosier than it was just a couple of months ago. It won't be legitimate, but that won't matter... at least not to the Democrats.

* I've been informed that I'm not the first, Ric beat me to the punch. Probably some others as well. Oh well.