Thursday, May 13, 2010
yield to no one in my contempt for the idea that Obama's 'reset' was going to turn the world into our friends... but at the same time, I'm not getting excited about Russia's supposed warning the United States against unilaterally imposing sanctions on Iran.
What's Russia going to do if we don't listen? Ship defense weaponry to Iran? They're already doing that. Help Iran build their nuke program? They're already doing that.
Russia isn't going to sacrifice its own economy in a show of solidarity with Iran. They're not going to cut off oil supplies to the West (Russia needs the money). They're not going to close down the borders to foreign investment (that would deny them shakedown targets). They're not going to sail their Navy into the Persian Gulf to protect Iranian tankers (they know they wouldn't fare too well).
In a way, I'm actually encouraged by this. Russia wouldn't be trying to warn us off if they didn't think we were heading down the path towards unilateral (defined as not including Russia) sanctions. So Russia's protests could be a sign that the United States is moving to stop talking and actually do something about the Mad Mullahs pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Yeah, I know that doesn't mean much, that there's no way Obama will actually agree to take the steps that would succeed... but something is better than nothing.