Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Here's why Obama's latest approval rating of 53% is worse than it seems...

Obama is over 50% only because he has overwhelming support from Democrats as neither a majority of Independents (45%) nor Republicans (18%) approve of the job he is doing. In other words, he is supported by his liberal base and no one else.

And he needs support from somewhere else, in particular the Independents. In any given race, it is presumed that the Democratic candidate will get support from the Democrats and the Republican candidate will get support from the Republicans... making the Independents the constituency whose support is critical to winning election.

And he doesn't have that support right now. They don't support him on his handling of foreign policy in general and they support his handling of Afghanistan even less. I'll infer from the poll results that they're not thrilled with his handling of the economy either.

Just as Lyndon Johnson was reported to have said "If I've lost Walter Cronkite, I've lost middle America", so too if Obama if losing middle America, then he's losing his chances of getting a second term. Having support from your own party is good, but it ain't good enough.