Monday, October 06, 2008

The stock market and the economy will be in the toilet until November 5, 2008, at which time both will slowly start to recover from what ails them, with the recovery accelerating on January 20, 2009...

Those dates are, for those few of you who need to be told, the date after Obama wins the Presidency and the date he takes office.

And why will the sun again start to shine on those dates?

Because once Obama wins, the MSM will no longer have an interest in shoving negative stories down our throats. And on the day he takes office, they'll have an interest in playing up how well things are now going.

And why do I feel the MSM bias for Obama is hurting our economy? And why do I feel their cheerleading for Obama will be the catalyst for an economic recovery?

The stock market, as well as the economy as a whole, is built on perception. If we think things are going well, things will indeed go well. And when we think things are going bad, just as night follows day, they go bad.

Despite what economists and market prognosticators think, there is no inherent value in anything. There is no 'natural' price, there are no 'fundamentals' that drive the economy or drive the price of a stock. What drives value, stock prices, inflation, employment and everything else that comprises our economy is PERCEPTION.

When businesses think good news is on the horizon, they open up and start hiring and spending. When individuals think good news lies ahead, they open up their wallets and spend.

And the factor, above all others, that drive perceptions that affect the market is the stories that we read and hear from the newspapers and the television news shows. Run enough negative stories about people losing their jobs, even if just about everybody still has one, run enough stories about businesses filing bankruptcy, even if far more businesses are making profits, run enough stories about people losing their house, even if far more people are making their mortgage payments and you can create some serious misgivings about the economy.

And what we've been getting from the MSM for the past year or so is a lot of bad news, and we haven't been getting much, if anything, that constitutes good news. We hear about falling house prices and problems on Wall Street, we don't hear about growth in manufacturing and exports. We've been fed lines for close to two years that we are in a recession, even though the reality is that through the end of the June quarter, our economy has been growing, not shrinking. And the bad news we get is presented in a way that maximizes the damage; we don't hear of any silver linings or anything that in any way would mitigate the damage from the bad news.

And the reason we've been getting so much bad news? Because the MSM knows that voters have historically punished the incumbent party for bad economic news. They know that Obama's chances of winning are directly correlated with bad economic news. The worse the economy, the better Obama's chances. And since the MSM wants Obama to win more than just anything else they could hope for, they have had every reason to focus all of their attention on the bad news, all in order to paint as bleak a picture as possible, all in order to make as many voters as possible feel bad about the economy, all in order to have the economy suffer, all in order to increase Obama's chances of winning. And the culprit responsible for all the bad news? Bush and Republicans. That's why you won't read much about how the Democrats share a lot of the blame for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; the MSM can't afford to have the voters thinking the Republicans aren't totally to blame.

(Note: the reverse applies to national security and crime, where the GOP traditionally does better when the public feels scared. Thus, is anyone surprised that we're not seeing any articles about the terrorist threat or crime in the streets? And it's a sign of the MSM commitment for Obama that they've been sacrificing their own 401(k)s and house values by pushing out the negative stories; one has to admire their dedication

And once Obama wins? Well, the MSM no longer has a need to push the negative economic story line. While they don't want the economy to recover before Obama takes office (it was embarrassing that the 1992 recession that the MSM hyped in order to help Clinton win was over before Clinton took office), Obama winning will remove much of the incentive to keep pushing the bad news.

And with Americans generally being an optimistic bunch of folks, the absence of bad news, even if there is no corresponding increase in 'good' news, will start to lift spirits and lay the groundwork for a economic revival.

And once Obama takes office, having pushed Obama on us, the MSM needs to 'prove' to us that Obama was the right choice, and what better way to kick start the economy than by running lots of stories about how the economy has started to turn around since his inauguration? We'll start to hear stories about pockets of recovery, how this sector or this area is doing better than they were just a few months ago. And these stories will lead to more stories and more consumer and business optimism, all of which will lead to stock prices (a leading indicator of economic health) starting to rise, businesses starting to add employees and consumers starting to venture out and start spending again.... and presto, our economy will be humming again and all will be right in America.... because, and only because, we were smart enough to have voted for Obama.

Of course, if we go and elect McCain, boy oh boy, will we be in for a world of hurt. We will have proven that we're a bunch of racist stupid pond scum (as ipso facto evidenced by our not for Obama). We'll need to be shown that we made a terrible, terrible mistake. The MSM will make us pay. There is nothing worse than a woman scorned or a liberal whose candidate has just been denied the office and power they feel they were born to hold. They will make us pay. There is no way they will let the economy recover with a McCain in office. They will double their efforts to drive the economy down.

So America, the choice is simple. If you want the economy to recover, vote for Obama. If you want four more years of misery and layoffs and falling home prices, vote for McCain.