Monday, November 07, 2005
poll that shows Tim Kaine ahead in the VA Governor's race has got some very odd aspects to it...
According to the poll, Kilgore barely ekes out a plurality among regular church-goers and only manages a tie among rural voters. Even more odd than the specter of Kilgore doing so bad in these traditionally GOP demographics is the poll showing Kilgore losing both the male and the white votes; historically, Democrats are competitive only because they bring in the minority votes to offset how badly they do with whites and males.... so for Kilgore to be losing these groups shows something to be very wrong.
Now it's possible that Kilgore is just doing a terrible job... but, notwithstanding the complaints about his campaign and the endorsement of Kaine by all the MSM papers, Kilgore isn't doing too badly. He's smacking Kaine for having raised taxes, for talking out of both sides of his mouth and has pushed an anti-illegal immigrant theme in recent weeks... all issues that ought to resonate with Virginia voters.
But the biggest reason I see for discounting this poll: it shows Kaine picking up 15% of the self-described conservative vote. That just ain't going to happen. Conservatives may sit out elections, especially if they're ticked off at the silly and stupid things the supposedly-Republican President is doing. But they don't vote for Democrats. Not now. Not ever.
So, while I am not prepared to predict a Kilgore victory, as Chad at Redstate is doing, I think it will be closer than this poll predicts it will be...