Posted 1:48 PM by steve

I've gotten a fair amount of feedback after posting Bush's lead is gone and I'm depressed. Some is gloating from Kerry supporters. Most has been from Bush supporters, some of whom pointed out that Newsweek stacked their poll, others arguing that there's still time left before the election, that Kerry hasn't cracked the 50% level and so on.

All of the above are valid points... but they don't change my mind that Bush is going to lose the election. I apologize for not detailing my thinking on this, and hoping to make amends, here goes...

I've long felt that Bush needed a big lead (more than 6-7 points in the head-to-head counts; Nader's not on enough ballots to negatively affect Kerry) with a month to go or Kerry would end up pulling off the upset. Even if the Newsweek poll overstates Kerry's support, I'm assuming that other polls coming out soon will show Bush to have a lead of less than that critical level. Bush needs such a lead because I think there's a perfect storm forming over the next four weeks that will totally destroy Bush's chances for re-election.

First, I can all but guarantee there's going to be a media-driven October surprise, somthing along the lines of 2000's drunk driving story. The hundreds of reporters covering the campaign aren't looking for dirt on Kerry; they're all too busy looking for dirt on Bush. Who knows what such a story would be about - drunk driving redux, drug use, Bush's Guard Service again, some scandal relating to a member of the Bush family - but as CBS showed us, when it comes to running with a negative Bush story, it's anything goes. I'm guessing that, like in 2000, whatever the story is about will cost Bush a couple of points of support - enough that if Bush isn't comfortably ahead to cost him the election.

Second, I have to assume there will be some kind of terror attack against the US in the next four weeks. Not necessarily in the US, perhaps it will take place in Iraq, perhaps somewhere else in the world. Unlike a lot of conservative pundits, I don't believe that such an attack will cause voters to rally around the President. Not when I see Kerry and his surrogates getting right out and blaming Bush for the attacks. Yes, you heard me right. Kerry and his surrogates will blame Bush for the attacks. Kerry set the stage for this with his debate lines that "(Bush) thought it was more important to give the wealthiest people in America a tax cut rather than invest in homeland security" and "...a mistake of judgment to go there (Iraq) and take the focus off of Osama bin Laden". Now, please don't say that this is too low for the Kerry campaign. For Bush's opponents, there is no tactic that is too low.

Third, Bush needs a big lead to counter the effects of what I believe will be massive and widespread cases of election fraud on the part of the Democrats. Bill Hobbs is running an archive of early reports of fraud. Dead people will be voting, illegal aliens will be voting, we'll have people voting Democratic in return for a pack of cigarettes In close states, of which there are far too many, this fraud will be sufficient to shift the outcome to Kerry.

Fourth, while there's not a whole lot of undecideds or fence sitters (those who can go either way), there are enough for them to affect the outcome. Here's why I expect them, as in the past, to break for the challenger. Anybody who hasn't yet made up their mind is, by definition, less engaged and less informed. They don't vote based on a long analysis of each candidate's positions, from watching tapes of press conferences, speeches and the like. They vote on a variety of emotion, quick snippets from the evening news, an overhead comment at the grocery store and so on. And, I'm sad to say, Kerry sound bites work just fine - it's only when you listen to him for more than ten minutes that he reveals himself to be a pompous idiot. Bush, on the other hand, is the one that takes a fair amount of listening to in order to gain an appreciation of what he is and where he stands. Bush in 10 second sound bites doesn't always sound so good. And we can count on the media (did I mention that they're doing their best to help Kerry?) to show Kerry in the best possible light while showing Bush in a much less favorable settings.

The final reason why Bush will lose is that he's not fighting back. Ironically, while Bush correctly reminds us that we now live 'post 9/11' and that we need to act accordingly, he is still campaigning in a pre-2000 time warp. The Democrats have shown no restraint in doing anything, saying anything, sliming anyone and suing anyone - anything goes to defeat Bush. Bush has been slow to recognize this and slower to respond. This will end up being the single biggest factor in his defeat.

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