Tuesday, March 18, 2003

Will Saletan still thinks there's a 1% chance of war not breaking out. Since Hussein has turned down exile, you think this would preclude the odds from being anything other than 100%.

Maybe Saletan thinks there's a 1% chance that Hussein will change his mind and leave Iraq. Maybe his calculus is based on a combination of a one-half of 1% chance of that happening, together with a similar likelihood of Hussein (and his sons) being shot by disgruntled Iraqi soldiers. If that's not how he gets his 1%, then perhaps he's thinking that there is a one-quarter of 1% chance each of (1) Hussein choosing exile, (2) Hussein being shot, (3) Bush, Cheney and Denny Hastert all dying, and within the next 28 hours, and Robert Byrd taking over the Presidency (this only works if I have my succession chart right), and (4) the crisis in Korea erupting in a way, again within the next 28 hours, that requires Bush to immediately move all the troops out of the Middle East.

Like it or not, this has been in the cards for a long time coming - it's silly to think there's been any other outcome.....